West Ham United vs Sunderland: 5 Key Predictions

Match Date: Saturday, January 24, 2026 Kick-off: 13:30 GMT

Hammers Face Championship Side in FA Cup Showdown West Ham United vs Sunderland

West Ham United welcome Sunderland to the London Stadium this Saturday in what promises to be an intriguing FA Cup fourth-round encounter. The Premier League hosts will be overwhelming favorites against their Championship opponents, but cup football has a habit of producing shocks, and the Black Cats will arrive with nothing to lose and everything to gain.

The match kicks off at 13:30 GMT on January 24, giving both sets of supporters a Saturday afternoon spectacle. West Ham manager Julen Lopetegui will be keen to progress in the competition while managing his squad carefully amid a congested fixture schedule. Sunderland, meanwhile, will see this as a golden opportunity to test themselves against top-flight opposition and potentially pull off a memorable cup upset.

Team Statistics and Current Form

West Ham United have shown inconsistent form in the Premier League this season, currently sitting in mid-table. Their attacking prowess at home has been evident, with the Hammers averaging 1.8 goals per game at the London Stadium. Defensively, however, they have been vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.4 goals per home fixture. This defensive fragility could provide Sunderland with encouragement.

The Black Cats have been performing admirably in the Championship, mounting a serious promotion challenge. Their away record has been particularly impressive, with 7 wins from their last 12 matches on the road. Sunderland’s attacking unit has found the net in 9 of their last 10 away games, demonstrating their ability to pose problems for opposition defenses regardless of the venue.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Analysis

The BTTS market looks particularly appealing for this fixture. West Ham’s attacking quality should see them create numerous chances against lower-league opposition, but their defensive issues this season suggest Sunderland could find opportunities on the counter-attack. In 64% of West Ham’s home matches this season, both teams have scored. For Sunderland, that figure stands at 58% in away fixtures. The odds favor BTTS Yes at approximately 1.85, representing solid value for bettors expecting an open, entertaining cup tie.

Over/Under Goals Market

Given both teams’ propensity to be involved in high-scoring affairs, the Over 2.5 Goals market appears attractive. West Ham have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 68% of their home matches this season, while Sunderland have exceeded that threshold in 61% of their away games. The cup context may encourage both teams to attack with freedom, particularly if the match remains competitive. Over 2.5 Goals is priced around 1.70, while the more adventurous Over 3.5 Goals sits at approximately 2.60.

Double Chance and Handicap Betting

For those seeking safer options, the Double Chance market offers West Ham or Draw at around 1.10, though the minimal returns make this less appealing. More interesting is the Sunderland Draw or Win option at approximately 2.20, which provides coverage against a potential cup shock while still offering decent returns.

The Asian Handicap market presents intriguing possibilities. West Ham -1.5 goals at around 2.00 offers value for those confident in a comfortable home victory. However, Sunderland +1.5 at 1.80 provides excellent insurance, requiring the Black Cats to either win, draw, or lose a single goal for the bet to succeed.

First Goal Scorer Predictions

Jarrod Bowen has been West Ham’s most consistent attacking threat this season, with 8 goals in all competitions. The English winger is priced at approximately 4.50 to open the scoring, representing reasonable value given his current form and penalty-taking responsibilities. Mohammed Kudus has also impressed with 5 goals and 3 assists, available at around 5.00 for first goal.

For Sunderland, striker Wilson Isidor has been in excellent form with 11 goals this season. The forward is priced at approximately 9.00 to score first, offering significant returns should the Black Cats strike early. His pace and movement could cause problems for West Ham’s defense, particularly if the Premier League side shows early complacency.

Anytime Goal Scorer Market

Beyond the first goal market, the anytime scorer options provide additional opportunities. Jarrod Bowen at around 2.20 to score anytime represents excellent value given West Ham’s expected dominance. Lucas Paquetá, with his technical ability and eye for goal, is available at approximately 2.60.

For Sunderland, both Wilson Isidor (4.00) and Jack Clarke (4.50) offer appealing odds. Clarke has contributed 6 goals and 9 assists this season, demonstrating his ability to influence matches in the final third. His creativity and direct running could exploit spaces left West Ham’s attacking full-backs.

The Shocking Reality: West Ham’s Cup Vulnerability

Here’s the uncomfortable truth that West Ham supporters may not want to hear: their team has been eliminated lower-league opposition in cup competitions 4 times in the last 6 seasons. This alarming statistic should send shivers down the spine of every Hammers fan. The club’s inability to take so-called “smaller” opponents seriously has become a disturbing pattern, with complacency and team rotation often proving costly.

Last season’s shock exit to Bristol City remains fresh in the memory, and Sunderland possess superior quality to that Championship side. The Black Cats’ organization, work rate, and genuine goal threat make them dangerous opponents, especially if West Ham’s players underestimate the challenge. This isn’t just a potential banana skin; it’s a genuine threat to the Hammers’ season, and the lack of respect shown to cup competitions in recent years could come back to haunt them once again.

Goal/No Goal Predictions

The Goal/No Goal market asks whether each team will find the net. Given the statistical evidence, Yes/Yes (both teams to score) at around 1.95 appears the most logical selection. West Ham’s firepower should ensure they score, while their defensive vulnerabilities create opportunities for Sunderland. The Yes/No option (West Ham to score, Sunderland not to) sits at approximately 2.40, suitable for those expecting a professional home performance with a clean sheet.

Key Players and Assist Markets

Lucas Paquetá has provided 4 assists this season and remains West Ham’s creative heartbeat. His ability to unlock defenses with incisive passing makes him a strong candidate in the anytime assist market at around 3.50. James Ward-Prowse, with his set-piece delivery, offers another assist option at approximately 4.00.

For Sunderland, Jack Clarke’s 9 assists this season make him the obvious choice at around 6.00. His pace and ability to beat defenders one-on-one could create problems for West Ham’s full-backs, particularly if fatigue sets in during the second half.

Final Predictions

While West Ham should progress, this match carries more risk than the odds suggest. A 2-1 home victory appears the most likely outcome, with both teams finding the net in an entertaining encounter. The correct score market offers 2-1 West Ham at approximately 8.50, while 2-2 sits at around 13.00 for those anticipating a genuine cup thriller.

Smart bettors should consider combining BTTS with Over 2.5 Goals for enhanced odds around 2.40, or backing Sunderland on the +1.5 Asian Handicap for safer returns. Whatever happens at the London Stadium, this FA Cup tie promises goals, drama, and potentially another shocking cup exit for the vulnerable Hammers.